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There is still a long way to go in Super League 2023 with most teams still having nine games to play while Huddersfield Giants still have eleven matches left including this evening’s visit to play the Catalans Dragons in the south of France.

But last nights golden point drop goal from Will Dagger threw a massive lifeline to Wakefield Trinity as they recorded their third win of the season, and their third win in their last four games as they show a massive turnaround in fortune.

With the Castleford Tigers losing to the Leigh Leopards last night the difference between the sides is now just two league points and it makes the game between the bottom two sides on the 20th August looks like the most crucial game of the season.

We thought that we´d make a few assumptions and take a look at the bottom three sides, just in case Huddersfield should get drawn into the scrap, and see who is likely to be occupying that bottom position come the end of round twenty-seven, and face relegation to the Championship or 2024.

Remaining Games

Wakefield

Huddersfield (A) - Warrington (H) - Hull FC (A) - Castleford (H) - Salford (A) - St Helens (H) - Catalans (H) - Leigh (A) - Hull KR (H)

Castleford

Hull FC (A) - Hull KR (A) - Huddersfield (H) - Wakefield (A) - St Helens (H) - Warrington (A) - Hull FC (H) - Wigan (A) - Leeds (A)

Huddersfield

Dragons (A) - Wakefield (H) - Hull FC (H) - Castleford (A) - Salford (H) - Leeds (H) - Leigh (A) - Hull KR (H) - Hull FC (A) - Warrington (H) * St Helens (A) TBA

Assumptions

We´ve had to make a few assumptions to enable us to make an empirical assessment, so;

  • Playing against a side in the top 6 there is a 30% chance of winning
  • Playing against a side in positions 7 or 8 there is a 40% chance of winning
  • Playing against a side in the bottom 4 there is a 55% chance of winning
  • Playing at home against a bottom 6 side +10%
  • Playing at home against a top 6 side +5%
  • Playing away -10%

Predictions

Based on these assumptions;

Wakefield will beat - Castleford, Hull KR

Castleford will beat - Huddersfield, Hull FC

Huddersfield will beat - Wakefield, Hull FC, Leeds (only just), Hull KR

If this plays out like our predictions suggest then the Huddersfield Giants will be safe on eighteen points while both the Castleford Tigers and Wakefield Trinity will finish the season still separated by two league points. But we would only need to be wrong on one outcome for either Wakefield or Castleford for the decision to go down to points difference.

With the recent form of Wakefield, especially in taking the scalps of two top six sides in the last couple of weeks, we just have an inkling that they might pull off the miracle of the century and avoid the drop, sending the Castleford Tigers tumbling into the Championship for the first time since 2007.

It´s going to be one hell of nerve-wracking run in for two anxious sets of supporters.



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Posted by RLFANS News Hound on Sat 8th Jul 2023 10:59 AM | Views : 14390 | Replies : 21 | BACK TO STORIES
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Matches on TV
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This is an inplay table and live positions can change.
Mens Betfred Super League XXVIII ROUND : 1
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Wigan 29 768 338 430 48
Hull KR 29 731 344 387 44
Warrington 29 769 351 418 42
Leigh 29 580 442 138 33
Salford 28 556 561 -5 32
St.Helens 28 618 411 207 30
 
Catalans 27 475 427 48 30
Leeds 27 530 488 42 28
Huddersfield 27 468 658 -190 20
Castleford 27 425 735 -310 15
Hull FC 27 328 894 -566 6
LondonB 27 317 916 -599 6
This is an inplay table and live positions can change.
Betfred Championship 2024 ROUND : 1
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Wakefield 27 1032 275 757 52
Toulouse 26 765 388 377 37
Bradford 28 723 420 303 36
York 29 695 501 194 32
Widnes 27 561 502 59 29
Featherstone 27 634 525 109 28
 
Sheffield 26 626 526 100 28
Doncaster 26 498 619 -121 25
Halifax 26 509 650 -141 22
Batley 26 422 591 -169 22
Swinton 28 484 676 -192 20
Barrow 25 442 720 -278 19
Whitehaven 25 437 826 -389 18
Dewsbury 27 348 879 -531 4
Hunslet 1 6 10 -4 0
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